Annex 1 targets are NOT on track
According to a report by the a-list team at Climate Analytics that was just published in Nature Reports, we’re not even close to being on track for success in Copenhagen. Which is to say that an aggregated analysis of Annex 1 commitments (which “would be in the range of 814 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 if current commitments were followed through”) and non-Annex 1 “deviations from baseline (which are assumed to be 4% by 2020) yields the conclusion that we are in trouble deep, with virtually “no chance of limiting warming to 2 C (or 1.5 C) above pre-industrial temperatures.”
This analysis is limited, but it may, alas, be accurate. Which is to say that the very small deviation by baseline assumed in non-Annex 1 would seem to correspond to very low levels of Annex 1 financial and technological support for decarbonization in the developing world. There’s no attempt make to quantify that support, but right now the assumption that it will be limited seems, unfortunately, to be all too reasonable.
In a related development, note that a so far 37 developing countries have called upon the industralized countries to reduce their 2020 emissions by “at least 40 per cent below 1990 levels.” They’ve even gone so far as to differentiate this goal between countries, “by applying the principle of historical responsibility, from 1850 to 2005.” For the details, see the UNFCCC docs library, here.